Cotto vs. Canelo: Analysis

Cotto vs. Canelo: Analysis

By M.DeTyrone

According to the boxing media and the casual fans, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is one of the next boxing superstars and only Miguel Cotto stands in his way. All over the web, his fans and many are commenting Alvarez will KO Cotto. The consensus is that Alvarez has the youth and power Cotto is at the late stage of his career. The theory and belief by the boxing media and Canelo fans is that since Alvarez defeated and hurt Austin Trout that Alvarez will KO and defeat Cotto. Although Alvarez has not TKO’d or KO’d, any top opponent. If you look at the past comments from Canelo’s trainers that believe Cotto’s a washed up old boxer, which is one of the reason, why they were very anxious to have a Cotto vs. Alvarez fight months ago. 

One example is Roberto Duran who lost fights vs. Robbie Sims; Kirkland Laing in what was one of the biggest upsets in the early 1980’s. However, Duran would later return to win a WBA Super Welterweight title vs. Davey Moore, and later in his career win a WBC middleweight title at 156 lbs. vs. Iran Barkley. This belief that the Canelo victory over Trout is an indication of a future outcome is not what boxing history has shown us.

After the Lara, Mayweather Jr. and Kirkland fights it’s safe to that Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is a slugger he lacks true mobility, defense, and finesse his combinations are fast but they are repetitive and predictable. Like the traditional slugger outside a few exceptions in boxing “Canelo” just relies on power and brute force to obtain victories many, which have been vs. boxers that he outweighed and after their defeats, ended up back in the welterweight division.

Cotto in his last two fights have been against bigger men assuming we go with the boxing media and fans narrative that Sergio Martinez was with one good leg. Let’s accept the “one leg narrative” nevertheless Martinez still had more movement that Alvarez has shown with two good legs.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez:

 Height 5’9” Reach 70 ½

Pro Record: 45-1-1 (32KO)

Trainers: Eddy Reynoso & Jose Reynoso

In the last six fights 5-1 (3KO) vs. James Kirkland (WKO3), Erislandy Lara (WSD12), Alfredo Angulo (WTKO10), Floyd Mayweather Jr. (LMD12), Austin Trout (WUD12), and Josesito Lopez (WTKO5).

In world championship fights 7-1 (4KO) vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. (LMD12), Austin Trout (WUD12), Josesito Lopez (WTKO5), Shane Mosley (WUD12), Kermit Citron (WTKO5), Alfonso Gomez (WTKO6), Ryan Rhodes (WTKO12), and  Matthew Hatton (WUD12) won vacant WBC Super Welterweight title.

Alvarez in eight world championship bouts has a record of 7-1 (4KO) with a 50%KO.

Are we to believe that Cotto at this stage of his career is at the level of a Kermit Cintron, Matthew Hatton, Ryan Rhodes, Alfonso Gomez, and a Josesito Lopez? Well many believe that he’s and his past few victories have been smoke and mirrors. Let’s look at the five common opponents both boxers have fought. The most recent are Floyd Mayweather Jr. a fight, which both boxers lost but Cotto had a better performance than Alvarez did. Then Austin Trout that Alvarez won via UD12 in 2013 and Cotto lost via UD12 in 2012.

Alvarez fought a 39-year-old Shane Mosley in 2012 at 154 lbs. Mosley in his next fights returned to the welterweight division and then back to the super welterweight division where Anthony Mundine KO’d him in 7 rounds. Cotto fought a 34-year-old Mosley in 2007 in the welterweight division. Mosley would then bounce back and defeat Ricardo Mayorga via a 12 round KO, and then KO in 9 rounds a Antonio Margarito which was caught with Plaster of Paris in hand wraps and was consequently suspended from boxing in California. Alvarez fought a 39-year-old Lovemore Ndou in 2010 in a Super Welterweight bout the next fight Ndou returned to the welterweight division losing to Kell Brook. Six years earlier Cotto had already fought a 33-year-old Ndou in the Jr. Welterweight division.

Alvarez fought Alfonso Gomez in 2011 in the 154 lbs. division, Alvarez wins via a six round TKO. The next fight, Alfonso Gomez returns to the welterweight division and loses to Shawn Porter in a 10 round UD. Cotto fought Alfonso Gomez in 2008 in the welterweight division (147 lbs.), Cotto won via a five Round TKO.

Alvarez vs. Common Opponents: 4-1 (1KO)

Cotto vs. Common Opponents: 3-2 (1KO)

Miguel Cotto:

Height 5’7” Reach 67”

Pro Record 40-4 (33KO)

Trainer: Freddie Roach

In last six fights 4-2 (4KO) vs. Daniel Geale (WTKO4), Sergio Martinez (WTKO10), Delvin Rodríguez (WTKO3), Austin Trout (LUD12), Floyd Mayweather Jr. (LUD12), and Antonio Margarito (WTKO9).

In world champion fights 19-4 (16KO) vs. Daniel Geale (WTKO4), Sergio Martinez (WTKO10), Austin Trout (LUD12), Floyd Mayweather Jr (LUD12), Antonio Margarito (WTKO9), Ricardo Mayorga (WTKO12), Yuri Foreman (WTKO9), Manny Pacquiao (LTKO12), Joshua Clottey (WSD12), Michael Jennings (WTKO5) vacant WBO welterweight title, Antonio Margarito (LTKO11). Alfonso Gomez (WTKO5), Shane Mosley (WUD12), Zab Judah (WTKO11), Oktay Urkal (WTKO11), Carlos Quintana (WTKO5) vacant WBA world welterweight title, Paul Malignaggi (WUD12), Gianluca Branco (WTKO8), Ricardo Torres (WTKO7), Muhammad Abdullaev (WTKO9), Demarcus Corley (WTKO5), Randall Bailey (WTKO6), and Kelson Pinto (WTKO6) vacant WBO world super lightweight title.

Cotto in 23 world championship bout has a record of 19-4 (16KO) with a 69.5%KO.

In a round by round analysis of both boxers, we can see the differences in KO victories and we know the quality of opponents, which both have faced. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has 32KO’s in 47 bouts with a 68%KO and Miguel Cotto has 33KO’s in 44 bouts with a 75%KO. One must take into account the 23 world title fights and a 69.5%KO that’s experience and can be wear and tear on the boxer, however in the last 3 bouts Cotto hasn’t shown any wear and tear but a rejuvenation and love for the sport of boxing. 

Rounds 1-3:

Alvarez: 14KO’s 44% of his 32KO’s

Cotto: 8KO’s 24% of his 33KO’s

Cotto’s best-known KO was of Delvin Rodríguez (TKO3).

Alvarez’s best-known KO was of James Kirkland (TKO3).  

Rounds 4-7:

Cotto: 15 KO’s 46% of his 33KO’s

Alvarez: 9KO’s 28% of his 32KO’s

Cotto’s best-known KO’s of Daniel Geale (TKO4), Alfonso Gomez (TKO5), Carlos Quintana (TKO5), Ricardo Torres (KO7), Demarcus Corley (TKO5), and of Randall Bailey (TKO6).

Alvarez best-known KO’s of Josesito Lopez (TKO5), Kermit Cintron (TKO5), Alfonso Gomez (TKO6), Carlos M. Baldomir (KO6, and Luciano L. Cuello (TKO6).

Rounds 8-10:

Cotto: 6KO’s 18% of his 33KO’s

Alvarez: 6KO’s 19% of his 32KO’s

Cotto best-known KO’s of Sergio Martinez (TKO10), Antonio Margarito (TKO9), Yuri Foreman (TKO9), and of Carlos Maussa (TKO8).

Alvarez’s best-known KO wins are of Alfredo Angulo (TKO10) and Jose Miguel Cotto (TKO9).

The Championship Rounds:

 Cotto: 4KO’s 12% of his 33KO’s

 Alvarez 3KO’s 9% of his 32KO’s

Cotto best-known KO victories have been vs. Ricardo Mayorga (TKO12), Zab Judah (TKO11), Oktay Urkal (TKO11), and Cesar Bazan (TKO11).

Alvarez best-know KO victory was against Ryan Rhodes (TKO12).

If one is going into a war what would you rather have a general that has won countless wars with his strategies and tactics with and veteran soldiers which are battle tested and proven or would rather have a general that has won a few battles with a soldier that has won a few scrimmages.

That’s what you have with Cotto’s team, Roach, and Canelo’s team with the Reynoso trainers. Boxing is about intelligence, skills, strategy, tactics, and not brute force. Cotto under Roach has going back to his old form but with ring generalship and defense. Alvarez with the Reynoso team has shown little improvement outside admitting that he’s a slugger and still believes he’s a boxer puncher.

I don’t expect a slugfest or a brawl, I expect a Cotto that will use ring generalship and will try to systematically methodically-break down Alvarez with accurate power combinations controlling the distance and space for a late KO stoppage. I don’t expect Canelo to become a pressure boxer or develop instantly great footwork. Again, it will come down to the boxer’s team and strategies and who will have the stamina.