Cotto vs. Canelo: The Arguments M.DeTyrone

Cotto vs. Canelo: The Arguments

M.DeTyrone

“Canelo is younger, stronger, and hungrier than Cotto. He’ll destroy Cotto with a late round TKO.”

Boxing is not about force or strength. It’s about the boxer that can control the distance, space, and timing. “Canelo” Alvarez is a young strong slugger that lack mobility, defense, and finesse. His combinations are powerful for the first 5 rounds but they’re repetitive and predictable. After his stamina fades he just relies on power and brute force to obtain victories.

Cotto can stop Canelo’s momentum and force by controlling the distance like Trout slightly did, like Mayweather Jr. perfected, and then Lara applied but couldn’t execute hurting Canelo.  A boxer like Miguel Cotto uses defensive skills, controls the distance to his advantage, uses timing, and knows how to utilize space. He has the ability to adjust from an infighter, boxer-puncher, to a pure-boxer. This is the reason why Cotto held Mayweather Jr. according to Compubox to a total punch connection of 26%.  I don’t expect Cotto to go toe to toe versus “Canelo” Alvarez who fancies himself a boxer-puncher.  

I’m sorry but where is this great KO artist that people talk about? The facts are that historically, “Canelo” Alvarez in 7 world championship fights has a KO’d only 42% of the time and versus 9 ex or current world champions hold only KO’d 22% of the time. He’s not this KO artist that the boxing media and many make him out to be. When it comes to power Cotto is hands down the KO artist. Historically, Miguel Cotto in his 22 world championship fights has KO’d 68% of the time and versus 19 ex or current world champions he’s KO’d them 58% of the time.

§  “Canelo” Alvarez: 5-1 (2KO) with a KO at 33% vs. the last 6 opponents of a combined record of 187-15-3; Erislandy Lara (W. 12 SD); Alfredo Angulo (W. TKO10); Floyd Mayweather Jr. (L. 12MD; Austin Trout (W. 12UD); Josesito Lopez (W.TKO5); Shane Mosley (W. UD12)

§  Miguel Cotto: 4-2 (4KO) with a KO at 66% vs. the last 6 opponents of a combined record of 213-22-6; Sergio Martinez (W.TKO10); Delvin Rodriguez (W. TKO3); Austin Trout (L. UD12); Floyd Mayweather Jr. (L.UD12); Antonio Margarito (W.TKO9); Ricardo Mayorga (W.TKO12)

“Cotto can’t handle Canelo’s speed, power, counter-punching ability, and skills, because, Canelo is just a smarter boxer. He hurt Trout and defeated him something Cotto couldn’t do. Cotto just defeated a broken down Sergio Martinez with no movement. Canelo will be healthy and strong.”

Let’s accept the argument that Sergio Martinez was broken down with no movement for the sake of argument. All boxing experts and trainers said Sergio Martinez was going to KO Cotto, yet they were wrong they never mentioned “the knee” problems. Then of courses the excuses begin from the fans about a bad leg, something Martinez himself denied was the cause of his defeat.

Honestly, a one leg Martinez still has better footwork than a 100% healthy “Canelo” Alvarez. I have yet to see this great footwork from “Canelo” it’s obvious that he didn’t have it during the Trout, Mayweather Jr., and Lara fight.

Miguel Cotto just won a 10 round TKO victory over Sergio Martinez to win the WBC Middleweight Division Title at 159 lbs. Catchweight is being compared with Lovemore N’Dou, Alfonzo Gomez, Kermit Cintron, Alfredo Angulo, Carlos M. Baldomir, Matthew Hatton, and Josesito Lopez. A Miguel Cotto that held Mayweather Jr. to only to a 26% total punch connection, and just came off a victory in which he landed 54% of his power punches vs. Sergio Martinez according to Compubox.  A Miguel Cotto that in his 22 world championship fights has KO’d 68% of the time and versus 19 ex or current world champions he’s KO’d his opponents 58% of the time.

We are to believe that all throughout Cotto’s amateur career and pro career he’s never faced anyone with the speed, footwork, and counter-punching of “Canelo” Alvarez?

I have not seen any evidence in  “Canelo” Alvarez’ career of his  footwork, speed, or combinations being better than a 2007 Zab Judah, a 2012 Floyd Mayweather Jr., or a 2006 Paul Malignaggi. I have not seen any evidence of “Canelo” Alvarez being this great counter-puncher outside landing power combinations vs. stationary targets, or his fight vs. Trout that he counter for the first 5 rounds until he began to fade until he landed one shot that hurt Trout.

Let’s look at the reasoning and logic behind “Canelo” Alvarez hurts and defeats Austin Trout consequently that must mean that “Canelo” will defeat Cotto via KO. Delvin Rodriguez went 12 rounds vs. Austin Trout in 2012, however, he was KO’d in 3 rounds versus Miguel Cotto. The unknown highly unskilled Daniel Dawson dropped Austin Trout two times in their fight August 2014; does that mean Daniel Dawson is a more powerful puncher than Canelo or Cotto?  According to many “Canelo” fans because Angulo dropped Erislandy Lara, Canelo was to KO Lara. I think the world witness something totally different.

Miguel Cotto vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez: The Numbers. M.DeTyrone

Miguel Cotto vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez: The Numbers.

M.DeTyrone

Are we looking at Stardom vs. Skills? Are we looking at a young inexperienced boxer vs. an experienced fading veteran? These questions will be answered. They’re hyping this possible match as a huge Super Mega Fight for May 5th / Cinco de Mayo, a Mexican Holiday which Canelo and his promoter desire to regain at all cost from Floyd Mayweather Jr. and appease their nationalist fan base. The big problem is that Cotto and “Canelo” Alvarez in their last two PPV events they both combined didn’t reach near the numbers of one of Floyd Mayweather’s PPV buys in 2014.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez:

 Height 5’9” Reach 70 ½

Pro Record: 44-1-1 (31KO)

Trainers: Eddy Reynoso & Jose Reynoso

Canelo has never been Ko’d.

Last 6 opponents’ record: 5-1 (2KO) vs. a combined record of 187-15-3

In the last 6 fights: 33% KO

In 7 world championship fights: 42% KO

Versus 9 ex or current world champions: 22% KO

Total Pro Record: 67% KO

Last Pro Fight: Won a 12 round SD vs. Erislandy Lara at a 155 lbs. Middleweight Division Catchweight.

Vs. Common Opponents: 4-1 (1KO)

Vs. Austin Trout: In 2013 in the 154 lbs. division, Canelo wins a 12 round UD.

Vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr.: In 2013 in the 154 lbs. division, Canelo lost a 12 round MD.

Vs. Shane Mosley: In 2012 in the 154 lbs. division, Canelo wins a 12 round UD.

Vs. Alfonso Gomez: In 2011 in the 154 lbs. division, Canelo wins via 6 round TKO.

Vs. Lovemore N’Dou:  In 2010 in the 154 lbs. division, Canelo wins a 12 round UD.

According to Team Canelo and the Reynoso’s Miguel Cotto is just a stepping stone for a “Canelo” Alvarez that has been groomed to be the next future ppv star and the heir to the PPV Kingdom. Something they strongly feel entitled to obtain and claim over Floyd Mayweather Jr. because of Canelo’s nationality and alleged star power in boxing. Since, the early 2012 Team Canelo has been mentioning Cotto and pursuing a fight offering a reported upwards 10 million USD, a few years ago. An offer Cotto declined and instead decides to make history and win a middleweight title. Obviously there is more behind this entire proposed fight one is the exploitation the nationalistic fan base and brings up the old island of Puerto Rico vs. the nation of Mexico, as a theme to promote the fight. What will legitimize Canelo Alvarez more among the nationalistic fans than defeating a veteran Puerto Rican Boxer on Cinco de Mayo? Make no mistake about it this one of the reason why they are pushing and wanting the fight.

I’ve seen no improvements in Saul “Canelo” Alvarez boxing after the Mayweather Jr. Fight you would expect that he learned how to close the distance and footwork. However, insisted of progression what I have seen is a regression. “Canelo” Alvarez’ bad stamina, repetitive combinations, bad footwork, inexperience, lack of the ability to land on a non-stationary target, and his inability to adjust has been established.  I wouldn’t expect an experienced veteran like Miguel Cotto just to stand and trade power punches vs. “Canelo” Alvarez like some tuff man contest. Yes, “Canelo” Alvarez is younger, believed to be stronger, and believe to be a KO artist.

Miguel Cotto:

Height 5’7” Reach 67”

Pro Record 39-4 (32KO)

He has suffered 2 TKO defeats.

Trainer: Freddie Roach, International Boxing Hall of Famer & World Boxing Hall of Famer (Trainer)

Last 6 opponents’ record:  4-2 (4KO) vs. a combined record of 213-22-6

In the last 6 fights: 66% KO

In 22 world championship fights: 68% KO

Versus 19 ex or current world champions: 58% KO

Total Pro Record: 74% KO

Last Pro Fight: Won via TKO in 10 rounds vs. Sergio Martinez to win the WBC Middleweight Division Title at 159 lbs. Catchweight.

Vs. Common Opponents: 3-2 (1KO)

Vs. Austin Trout: In 2012 in the 154 lbs. division, Cotto lost a 12 round UD.

Vs.  Floyd Mayweather Jr.: In 2012 in the 154 lbs. division, Cotto lost a 12 UD.

Vs. Alfonso Gomez: In 2008 in the 147 lbs. division, Cotto wins via a 6 Round TKO.

Vs. Shane Mosley: In 2007 in the 147 lbs. division, Cotto won via a 12 round UD.

 Vs. Lovemore N’Dou: In 2004 in the 140 lbs. division, Cotto won a 12 UD.

What I expect is an intelligent Cotto that will follow the blue print laid down by Mayweather jr. and Lara, with his experience controls the distance, momentum, and timing. This will allow him to methodically and systematically break down “Canelo” Alvarez with body shots and strategic combinations. Waiting until the 5^th and 6^th round when “Canelo” Alvarez’ stamina begins to fade and at that precise moment when he begins to back pedal with his hands down towards the ropes. That’s when Cotto will capitalize. “Canelo” Alvarez is just force and repetitive power within the first 5^th rounds; if Cotto controls that momentum with ring generalship he’ll have a good chance to TKO or even KO Canelo.